HCFC-141b (CH3CCl2F) Emission Estimates for 2000-2050 in Eastern China

HCFC-141b (CH3CCl2F) has dual environmental impacts on ozone depletion and climate change, with the ozone depletion potential of 0.11 and the global warming potential of 782, and its emissions has attracted international attention. Under the control of the Montreal Protocol, China should phase out the production and consumption of HCFC-141b by 2030. This study firstly estimated the HCFC-141b emissions in eastern China based on the bottom-up method during 2000-2019. The results show that the HCFC-141b emissions in eastern China increased from 0.4 Gg yr-1 in 2000 to 7.1 Gg yr-1 in 2019, and there was a bank of 253.6 Gg in PU foam products in 2019, which may have an impact on the future HCFC-141b emissions. In addition, the HCFC-141b emissions were predicted in eastern China from 2020-2050 under the baseline scenario (BAU), the Montreal Protocol scenario (MP), and the accelerated phase-out scenario (AP), and the emission potential was analyzed. The results show that the HCFC-141b emissions increased rapidly under the BAU scenario, with the cumulative emissions of 1162.6 Gg in 2020-2050. Under the MP and AP scenarios, the cumulative HCFC-141b emission reduction potential from 2020 to 2050 will be 1002.1 Gg (equivalent to 110.2 Gg CFC-11-eq and 783.6 Tg CO2-eq) and 1034.8 Gg (equivalent to 113.8 Gg CFC-11-eq and 809.2 Tg CO2-eq), respectively. Compared with the MP scenario, under the AP scenario, eastern China will get an additional emission reduction potential of 32.7 Gg (equivalent to 3.6 Gg CFC-11-eq and 25.5 Tg CO2-eq) during 2020-2050, which will make greater contributions to protecting the ozone layer and mitigating climate change.

Automated summary

This study estimates the HCFC-141b emissions in eastern China from 2000-2019 and predicts the emissions from 2020-2050 under different scenarios. The results show an increasing trend in HCFC-141b emissions in eastern China, with a significant potential for reduction under the Montreal Protocol and accelerated phase-out scenarios. The findings highlight the importance of phasing out HCFC-141b for ozone layer protection and climate change mitigation.