All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza: A Nationwide Matched Cohort Study

Background: Although influenza poses substantial mortality burden, most studies have estimated excess mortality using time-aggregated data. Here, we estimated mortality risk and population attributable fraction (PAF) attributed to seasonal influenza using individual-level data from a nationwide matched cohort. Methods: Individuals with influenza during four consecutive influenza seasons (2013-2017) (n = 5,497,812) and 1:4 age-and sex-matched individuals without influenza (n = 20,990,683) were identified from a national health insurance database. The endpoint was mortality within 30 days after influenza diagnosis. All-cause and cause-specific mortality risk ratios (RRs) attributed to influenza were estimated. Excess mortality, mortality RR, and PAF of mortality were determined, including for underlying disease subgroups. Results: Excess mortality rate, mortality RR, and PAF of all-cause mortality were 49.5 per 100,000, 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.63-4.48), and 5.6% (95% CI, 4.5-6.7%). Cause-specific mortality RR (12.85; 95% CI, 9.40-17.55) and PAF (20.7%; 95% CI, 13.2- 27.0%) were highest for respiratory diseases. In subgroup analysis according to underlying disorders, PAF of all-cause mortality was 5.9% (95% CI, 0.6-10.7%) for liver disease, 5.8% (95% CI, 2.9-8.5%) for respiratory disease, and 3.8% (95% CI, 1.4-6.1%) for cancer. Conclusion: Individuals with influenza had a 4-fold higher mortality risk than individuals without influenza. Preventing seasonal influenza may lead to 5.6% and 20.7% reductions in all-cause and respiratory mortality, respectively. Individuals with respiratory disease, liver disease, and cancer may benefit from prioritization when establishing influenza prevention strategies.

Automated summary

This study estimated the mortality risk and population attributable fraction (PAF) attributed to seasonal influenza using individual-level data from a nationwide matched cohort. The results showed that individuals with influenza had a 4-fold higher mortality risk, and preventing seasonal influenza may lead to 5.6% reduction in all-cause mortality and 20.7% reduction in respiratory mortality.