CO2 emissions of constructing China's power grid towards carbon-neutral target: Based on top-down and bottom-up integrated model

Power sector is the largest industrial emitter in China, and renewable energy development would contribute to the large-scale construction of power grid. Mitigating carbon emissions of power gird construction is extremely important. So, the objective of this study is to understand embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction under carbon neutrality target, and then put forward to policy implications of carbon mitigation. This study, based on top-down and bottom-up integrated assessment models (IAMs), investigates carbon emissions of power grid construction towards 2060, through identifying the key driving factors and forecasting their embodied emissions in line with China's carbon neutrality target. Our results show that, the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dominates the increase in embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction, while energy efficiency and energy structure improvement contribute to the decrease. Large scale renewable energy development promotes the power grid construction. In 2060, total embodied carbon emissions would increase to 1105.7 Million tons (Mt) under the carbon neutrality target. However, the cost and key carbon-neutral technologies should be re-considered to ensure the sustainable electricity supply. The results could provide data reference and decision-making of designing power construction and mitigating carbon emissions of power sector in future.

Automated summary

The power sector in China is the biggest industrial emitter, and the development of renewable energy is crucial for the construction of a large-scale power grid. Mitigating carbon emissions from power grid construction is highly important. This study aims to understand the embodied carbon emissions from power grid construction under a carbon neutrality target and proposes policy implications for carbon mitigation. Using top-down and bottom-up integrated assessment models (IAMs), this study investigates carbon emissions of power grid construction until 2060, identifies key driving factors, and forecasts their embodied emissions in line with China's carbon neutrality target. The results show that the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mainly drives the increase in embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction, while energy efficiency and improvement in energy structure contribute to a decrease in emissions. Large-scale renewable energy development promotes power grid construction. By 2060, total embodied carbon emissions are projected to increase to 1105.7 million tons (Mt) under the carbon neutrality target. However, the cost and key carbon-neutral technologies need to be reconsidered to ensure sustainable electricity supply. These findings can provide data reference and support decision-making for designing power construction and mitigating carbon emissions in the power sector in the future.