Historical rainfall data in northern Italy predict larger meteorological drought hazard than climate projections

Simulations of daily rainfall for the region of Bologna produced by 13 climate models for the period 1850-2100 are compared with the historical series of daily rainfall observed in Bologna for the period 1850-2014 and analysed to assess meteorological drought changes up to 2100. In particular, we focus on monthly and annual rainfall data, seasonality, and drought events to derive information on the future development of critical events for water resource availability. The results show that historical data analysis under the assumption of stationarity provides more precautionary predictions for long-term meteorological droughts with respect to climate model simulations, thereby outlining that information integration is key to obtaining technical indications.

Automated summary

Simulations of daily rainfall produced by 13 climate models for the period 1850-2100 in Bologna were compared with historical rainfall data observed from 1850 to 2014. The analysis focused on monthly and annual rainfall, seasonality, and drought events to gather information about future water resource availability. The results indicate that historical data analysis provides more cautious predictions for long-term meteorological droughts compared to climate model simulations, highlighting the importance of integrating information.