Modeling survival curves of Anisakis L3 after isothermal heat treatments at lethal temperatures

Even though anisakiasis is considered, nowadays, a significant threat to public health all over the world, no attempt has been made up to date to mathematically describe the thermal susceptibility of Anisakis larvae in the third stage (L3). To fill this gap, in this paper, more than 10,000 free (non-encysted) Anisakis L3 were individually heat treated in a thermal cycler at temperatures between 44 & DEG;C and 61 & DEG;C for different exposure times. After heat exposition, viability was assessed in each larva, survival curves at isothermal conditions were derived, and the effectiveness of four kinetic models (fundamental kinetic model, Mafart model, and probit and logit models) in describing these curves was tested. Evaluation of larvae viability after heat exposition revealed sigmoidal survival curves that increased their steepness with temperature. Of the four models tested, the Mafart model was the one that best fitted the data only differing from the observed survival ratios by 0.12 units on average. Validation experiments performed at temperatures different to those used to create the model corroborated its predictive capacity. Future efforts should be focused in predicting larvae viability at non-isothermal conditions as those occurring during fish cooking.

Automated summary

Despite the significance of anisakiasis as a global public health threat, there has been no mathematical model to describe the thermal susceptibility of Anisakis larvae. This study treated over 10,000 larvae at different temperatures and exposure times, resulting in sigmoidal survival curves, with the Mafart model providing the best fit. Future research should focus on predicting larvae viability under non-isothermal conditions during fish cooking.