Modelling optimal control of air pollution to reduce respiratory diseases

Respiratory diseases caused by inhalation of air pollutants are affected by seasonal changes and mitigated by air pollution control, resulting in complex dynamics. In order to investi-gate the effects of various factors such as random noise and air pollution control on res-piratory diseases, we developed deterministic and stochastic two-dimensional coupled SIS models with multiple control measures. The proposed models and parameter estimation methods, including determinations of unknown parameter values, were used to fit the Air Quality Index (AQI) data for Xi'an city in recent 10 years. The existence of the optimal solu-tions for the deterministic and stochastic models were analyzed theoretically and provided to compare the parameter fitting solutions with the optimal solutions, and give theoretical support for seeking a more reasonable air pollution optimization prevention and control scheme. To show this, we conducted numerical simulations of the optimal control solution and state evolution trajectories under different weight coefficient ratios and control objec-tives. The results show that the stochastic optimal control problem is more consistent with the practical scenario. We also formulate the optimal control problem assuming that the control variable depends on the concentration of air pollutants. The optimal control solu-tion reflected the periodic variation of the air pollution control strategy well. A comparison of cost values for different combinations of the three control measures illustrated that air pollution reduction is the most effective control measure.& COPY; 2023 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Automated summary

Respiratory diseases are influenced by seasonal changes and air pollution control, making the dynamics complex. In this study, deterministic and stochastic models were developed to investigate the effects of factors such as random noise and air pollution control on respiratory diseases. The models were fitted with Air Quality Index data for Xi'an city, and the optimal solutions were analyzed theoretically to provide theoretical support for more reasonable air pollution control strategies.