Bayesian multitask learning for medicine recommendation based on online patient reviews

Motivation: We propose a drug recommendation model that integrates information from both structured data (patient demographic information) and unstructured texts (patient reviews). It is based on multitask learning to predict review ratings of several satisfaction-related measures for a given medicine, where related tasks can learn from each other for prediction. The learned models can then be applied to new patients for drug recommendation. This is fundamentally different from most recommender systems in e-commerce, which do not work well for new customers (referred to as the cold-start problem). To extract information from review texts, we employ both topic modeling and sentiment analysis. We further incorporate variable selection into the model via Bayesian LASSO, which aims to filter out irrelevant features. To our best knowledge, this is the first Bayesian multitask learning method for ordinal responses. We are also the first to apply multitask learning to medicine recommendation. The sample code and data are made available at GitHub: https://github.com/thrushcyc-github/BMull.Results: We evaluate the proposed method on two sets of drug reviews involving 17 depression/high blood pressure-related drugs. Overall, our method performs better than existing benchmark methods in terms of accuracy and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve). It is effective even with a small sample size and only a few available features, and more robust to possible noninformative covariates. Due to our model explainability, insights generated from our model may work as a useful reference for doctors. In practice, however, a final decision should be carefully made by combining the information from the proposed recommender with doctors' domain knowledge and past experience.

Automated summary

We propose a drug recommendation model that integrates structured data and unstructured texts. The model is based on multitask learning and can predict review ratings for a given medicine. It incorporates topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and variable selection. The proposed method outperforms existing benchmark methods in accuracy and AUC.