Association Between Serum Bilirubin and Atrial Fibrillation: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background and Objectives: The association between bilirubin and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been evaluated previously in observational studies but with contradictory results. This study evaluated the causal association between serum bilirubin level and AF using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.Methods: This cross-sectional study includes 8,977 participants from the Dong-gu Study. In the observational analysis, multivariate logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between bilirubin and prevalent AF. To evaluate the causal association between bilirubin and AF, MR analysis was conducted by using the UGT1A1 rs11891311 and rs4148323 polymorphisms as instrumental variables.Results: Elevated serum bilirubin levels were associated with an increased risk for AF in observational analysis (total bilirubin: odds ratio [OR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.15-1.48 per 1 standard deviation [SD]; direct bilirubin: OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.18-1.46 per 1 SD), whereas the genetically predicted serum bilirubin levels in MR analysis did not show this association (total bilirubin: OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.67-1.53 per 1 SD; direct bilirubin: OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.61-1.73 per 1 SD).Conclusions: Genetically predicted bilirubin levels were not associated with prevalent AF. Thus, the observational association between serum bilirubin levels and AF may be non -causal and affected by reverse causality or unmeasured confounding.

Automated summary

This study used Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the causal association between serum bilirubin level and atrial fibrillation (AF). The results showed that while the observational analysis found an association between elevated bilirubin levels and increased AF risk, the MR analysis did not find such correlation. Therefore, the observed association between serum bilirubin levels and AF may be non-causal and influenced by reverse causality or unmeasured confounding.