Early Endpoints in High-risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Exploratory Analysis of Three Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Phase 3 Studies

Background: Early endpoints in clinical trials of high-risk localized prostate cancer (HRLPC) that resemble those monitored in real-world practice could expedite clinical development. Objective: To assess the association of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence (PSAR)-based early endpoints with metastasis-free survival (MFS), overall survival (OS), and prostate cancer (PC)-specific survival (PCSS), and to identify clinically undetectable disease. Design, setting, and participants: A post hoc analysis of patients with HRLPC from Radiation Therapy Oncology Group studies 9202, 9902, and 0521 was performed. Intervention: Long-term adjuvant androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and post-primary definitive radiotherapy. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Event-free survival (EFS; PSA-R, locoregional recurrence [LRR], distant metastasis [DM], or death), biochemical failure (PSA-R), general clinical failure (PSA-R, LRR, DM, ADT initiation, or death), and no evidence of disease (NED; alive patients without PSA-R, LRR, DM, and subsequent PC therapy, and with testosterone recovery) were assessed for association with MFS, OS, and PCSS using correlation and landmark analyses, Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox proportional-hazard model. PSA-R was defined as PSA nadir + 2 ng/ml; PSA nadir + 2 ng/ml and rising; PSA >5, 10, and 25 ng/ml; or PSA doubling time (PSADT) <6 mo. Results and limitations: Among assessed early endpoints, EFS with PSA nadir + 2 ng/ml and rising, or with PSA >5 ng/ml was associated with MFS, OS, and PCSS. No development of EFS with PSADT <6 mo or ADT initiation event or achievement of NED at 3 yr was associated with prolonged OS, MFS, and PCSS (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.53 [0.45-0.64], 0.63 [0.52-0.76], and 0.26 [0.18-0.36], or 0.56 [0.48-0.66], 0.62 [0.52-0.74], and 0.26 [0.19-0.37]) after the landmark time. Older studies performed before the current guidance should be interpreted with caution. Conclusions: We identified EFS with PSA nadir + 2 ng/ml and rising, PSA >5 ng/ml, or PSADT <6 mo +/- ADT initiation and NED as potentially promising early endpoints in HRLPC that should be validated further. Patient summary: We identified novel clinical measures that may expedite the development of new medicines for patients with localized prostate cancer at a high risk of progression. These measures, which took into account prostate-specific antigen assessments and other clinical characteristics, should be confirmed in future studies. We also defined a novel measure of no evidence of disease that can help treating physicians identify patients with clinically undetectable disease. (C) 2023 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

PSAR-based early endpoints, such as PSA nadir + 2 ng/ml and rising, PSA >5 ng/ml, or PSADT <6 mo +/- ADT initiation and NED, are associated with MFS, OS, and PCSS, and can identify clinically undetectable disease in patients with HRLPC.