期刊
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
卷 6, 期 6, 页码 627-+出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2927
关键词
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资金
- EUCLEIA project - European Union [607085]
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- NERC HYDRA Changing Water Cycle project
- CEH/NERC National Capability fund
- UK Joint Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) MOHC Climate Programme [GA01101]
- NERC [NE/K006479/1, ceh020006, NE/H000224/1, NE/I00680X/1, NE/I006702/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [ceh020006, NE/K006479/1, NE/I00680X/1, NE/I006702/1, NE/H000224/1] Funding Source: researchfish
A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and 451 pound million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment's sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snow melt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.
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