期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 7, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12786
关键词
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资金
- Research Foundation Flanders (FWO)
- ETH Zurich [Fel-45 15-1]
- FWO
- Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO) [CD/AR/02A]
- Hercules Foundation
- Flemish Government-department EWI
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change.
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