期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 7, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11718
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资金
- Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) [DE-FC02-97ER62402]
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- Office of Science of the Department of Energy [DE-AC05-00OR22725]
The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.
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