Prognostic value of urinary cytology and other biomarkers for recurrence and progression in bladder cancer: a prospective study

Urinary cytology (C) and cystoscopy remain the gold standard for the detection and screening of bladder cancer (BC). In this prospective study, we analyzed whether baseline C, ImmunoCyt (I), BTA Stat (B), hemoglobin dipstick (H), and NMP22 BladderChek (N) can predict recurrence and progression. Urinary samples from 91 patients with BC were prospectively collected over an 18-month period. Baseline characteristics of the population included patient demographics, various clinicopathological variables and use of intravesical therapy. Progression and recurrence were then assessed after a median follow-up of 48 months (IQR 23.7-59.5). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using COX proportional hazards models. On univariate analysis, C (HR 1.36; p = 0.26), I (HR 0.89; p = 0.66), B (HR 0.80; p = 0.42), H (HR 0.75; p = 0.30), and N (HR 0.82; p = 0.48) were not associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS). With regard to progression-free survival (PFS), C was significantly prognostic (HR 2.67; p = 0.017), whereas I, B, H, and N were not. On multivariable analysis, NMP22 was the only marker to be independently associated with RFS (HR 0.41, p < 0.01) and PFS (HR 0.32, p = 0.02). Based on the results of this study, baseline C, B, I, and H were not independently prognostic. Prognostic impact of NMP22 requires further validation in a multicenter larger study.