期刊
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
卷 44, 期 -, 页码 303-316出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2015.07.013
关键词
Low carbon transport; Cities; Co-benefits; Scenarios
资金
- UNEP project Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India - German government (BMU) under the International Climate Initiative
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-12-2]
Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) 'representative vision' that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO2 mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand. Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits - reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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