期刊
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
卷 31, 期 10, 页码 2627-2643出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1349-9
关键词
Jiangsu Province; Climate change; Surface runoff; CMIP5; Variable infiltration capacity model
类别
资金
- Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China [BK20131368]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51579065]
- Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of P.R. China [201161]
- Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University [NCET-12-0842]
Surface runoff is a major water resource component and its spatial and temporal variations significantly impact on regional socio-economic development. In this study, changes to surface runoff in Jiangsu Province, China, were simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for the period 2011-2040, using input data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models and three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In general, annual mean precipitation under the five models and three scenarios showed a fluctuating upward trend, while annual mean temperatures were projected to increase by up to 1.34 A degrees C, as compared with the reference period (1970-1999). Monthly mean runoff depths were generally predicted to increase, with the most significant increases occurring in December. Increasing runoff depths were highest under the RCP8.5 emission scenario and lowest under RCP4.5. The results of this study provide an important reference for policymakers planning for the future water resources in Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, we conducted a case study with the VIC model and it showed high consistency with gauges and provides a new reference for the studies of other plain regions.
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