4.7 Article

Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios

期刊

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 569, 期 -, 页码 627-633

出版社

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.138

关键词

Heatwave; Public health; Climate change; Temperature; Mediterranean

资金

  1. European Regional Development Fund
  2. Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation [TFEIA/ATFEIA/0609(BIE)/20]

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Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1 degrees C and 5 degrees C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1 degrees C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5 degrees C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 3 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights resented.

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