Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target

Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policymakers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5 degrees to 1.5 degrees C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved.