A Statistical Model for Managing Water Temperature in Streams with Anthropogenic Influences

Streams in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, British Columbia) face rising summer temperatures and increasing anthropogenic influence, with consequences for fish populations. Guidance is needed in small managed watersheds for setting reservoir release rates or for the restriction of water extractions to meet the needs of fish and aquatic ecosystems. Existing environmental flow methods focus on discharge rates and do not typically consider water temperatures, and detailed thermal models are too complex for widespread implementation. We used multiple logistic regression to develop statistical models for estimating the probability of exceeding a salmonid stream temperature threshold of 22 degrees C as a function of discharge and maximum daily air temperatures. Data required are air temperature, stream temperature and stream discharge over a minimum of one summer. The models are used to make minimum discharge recommendations under varying forecast weather conditions. The method was applied to nine streams in the Pacific Northwest. Minimum recommended discharge generally ranged from 23% to 86% of mean annual discharge and was higher than observed low flows in most streams. Comparison of the new method to existing methods for Fortune Creek in British Columbia indicated that total season discharge volumes could be reduced while meeting thermal requirements. For other streams, it was evident that high water temperatures cannot be managed by increasing discharge, as the discharge required would be greater than natural discharge and higher than achievable by management. The statistical method described in this paper allows for a risk-based approach to discharge management for fish habitat needs.