Analysis of energy security, environmental emission and fuel import costs under energy import reduction targets: A case of Pakistan

The influence of reducing energy imports (5%, 10% and 15%) on primary energy supply, diversification of energy resources, cost of imported fuels, energy security and environmental emission during 2005-2050 were analyzed through a long term integrated energy system model of Pakistan using MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework. The study found that primary energy supply would decrease marginally, while cumulative renewable energy would increase by 24%. Energy import dependency would reduce by 3%, diversification of energy resources would increase 1.1 fold and vulnerability would decrease by 9% under energy import reduction scenario as compared to the base case. The cost of imported fuels would reduce by 10% and the greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 8% in the energy import reduction scenario. The impact on energy security was represented through a set of eleven energy security indicators. The improvements in energy security indicators under energy import reduction targets indicate the enhancement of energy security of Pakistan. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.