期刊
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
卷 156, 期 -, 页码 210-227出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.007
关键词
Collision risk analysis; Bayesian Networks; Event tree; Human factors; Human-centred design; Sensitivity analysis; FSA
资金
- European Commission [FP7-SST-2012-RTD-1 313972]
This paper presents an approach that more adequately incorporates human factor considerations into quantitative risk analysis of ship operation. The focus is on the collision accident category, which is one of the main risk contributors in ship operation. The approach is based on the development of a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates elements from the Technique for Retrospective and Predictive Analysis of Cognitive Errors (TRACEr) and focuses on the calculation of the collision accident probability due to human error. The model takes into account the human performance in normal, abnormal and critical operational conditions and implements specific tasks derived from the analysis of the task errors leading to the collision accident category. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most important contributors to human performance and ship collision. Finally, the model developed is applied to assess the collision risk of a feeder operating in Dover strait using the collision probability estimated by the developed BN model and an Event tree model for calculation of human, economic and environmental risks. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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