期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 113, 期 11, 页码 E1434-E1441出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113
关键词
sea level; Common Era; late Holocene; climate; ocean
资金
- US National Science Foundation [ARC-1203414, ARC-1203415, EAR-1402017, OCE-1458904, OCE-1458921]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NA11OAR431010, NA14OAR4170085]
- New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium [NJSG-16-895]
- Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program [RC-2336]
- Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) [NE/G003440/1]
- NERC Radiocarbon Facility
- Royal Society
- Harvard University
- US National Science Foundation [ARC-1203414, ARC-1203415, EAR-1402017, OCE-1458904, OCE-1458921]
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NA11OAR431010, NA14OAR4170085]
- New Jersey Sea Grant Consortium [NJSG-16-895]
- Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program [RC-2336]
- Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) [NE/G003440/1]
- NERC Radiocarbon Facility
- Royal Society
- Harvard University
- NERC [NE/G003440/1, NRCF010001] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NRCF010001, NE/G003440/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1322658, 1402017] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [1458904] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [1458921] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1203415] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 +/- 0.1 mm/y (2 sigma) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 +/- 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with similar to 0.2 degrees C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P >= 0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P = 0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8 +/- 1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据