期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 114, 期 1, 页码 113-118出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1618558114
关键词
dengue; climate; structural equation model; zero-inflated generalized additive models; prediction
资金
- National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) [2012CB955504]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [81273139]
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Independent Fund [2014SKLID106]
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis of the University of Oslo
Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
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