Effects of climate variability and change on agricultural production: The case of small scale farmers in Kenya

Agriculture is the mainstay of the Kenyan economy, contributing to food security and employment of rural households. Climate variability and change have adversely affected this sector and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. We estimate the effect of climate variability and change on revenue from all crops, maize and tea separately, using a household fixed effects estimator. We find that climate variability and change affects agricultural production but effects differ across crops. Temperature has a negative effect on crop and maize revenues but a positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect on tea. We find that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall patterns and any excess would negatively affect production. Temperature has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater effects in the tea sector. Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty should be a priority in Kenya. Implementing adaptation measures at national, county and farm levels as well as putting in place policies that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change. (C) 2016 Royal Netherlands Society for Agricultural Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.