Deploying solar photovoltaic energy first in carbon-intensive regions brings gigatons more carbon mitigations to 2060

The global surge in solar photovoltaic (PV) power has featured spatial specialization from manufacturing to installation along its industrial chain. Yet how to improve PV climate benefits are under-investigated. Here we explore the evolution of net greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation of PV industry from 2009-2060 with a spatialized-dynamic life-cycle-analysis. Results suggest a net GHG mitigation of 1.29 Gt CO2-equivalent from 2009-2019, achieved by 1.97 Gt of mitigation from installation minus 0.68 Gt of emissions from manufacturing. The highest net GHG mitigation among future manufacturing-installation-scenarios to meet 40% global power demand in 2060 is as high as 204.7 Gt from 2020-2060, featuring manufacturing concentrated in Europe and North America and prioritized PV installations in carbon-intensive nations. This represents 97.5 Gt more net mitigation than the worst-case scenario, equivalent to 1.9 times 2020 global GHG emissions. The results call for strategic international coordination of PV industrial chain to increase GHG net mitigation. Solar photovoltaic energy has the greatest potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions if manufactured in North America and Europe but deployed in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, according to a spatialized-dynamic life-cycle-analysis approach

Automated summary

The global surge in solar PV power has led to spatial specialization in the manufacturing and installation stages. This study investigates the net GHG mitigation of the PV industry using a dynamic life-cycle analysis. The results show a significant mitigation of 1.29 Gt CO2-equivalent from 2009-2019, with the highest potential net mitigation of 204.7 Gt from 2020-2060 in scenarios that prioritize manufacturing in Europe and North America and installations in carbon-intensive nations.