Examining Spatial Heterogeneity and Potential Risk Factors of Childlessness Across 412 Districts of India: An Analysis of 4 Decades

There has been a rise in childlessness in India in the last couple of decades. The rate of increase differs remarkably across districts. However very little is known about the spatial variation of childlessness. Thus using Census of India data the study explores the district level variation in prevalence of childlessness and its determinants over time. Univariate Moran's I and LISA statistics have been used to confirm the spatial clustering and dependence in childlessness. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Spatial (lag/error) models were employed to examine the effects of correlates on district level childlessness. The results indicate spatial clustering across districts in all the census rounds. High-high cluster i.e. hotspots are observed in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and low-low clusters along the northern and north-western part of the country. The spatial OLS, SLM and SE model identified the major factors affecting childlessness as literacy rate, age at marriage, percentage of urban population and Scheduled Tribe population. Owing to the importance of childlessness further research should focus on exploring the association of childlessness and fertility in Indian context.

Automated summary

There has been an increase in childlessness in India in the last few decades, with significant variations across districts. This study examines the district-level variation and determinants of childlessness using Census of India data. The findings reveal spatial clustering of childlessness across districts, with hotspots observed in southern states and low clusters in the northern and north-western regions. Factors such as literacy rate, age at marriage, percentage of urban population, and Scheduled Tribe population significantly influence childlessness.