Spatio-temporal analysis of fire incidences in urban context: the case study of Mashhad, Iran

The study aims to identify fire patterns in Mashhad, the second-most populous city in Iran, between 2015 and 2019. Spatial scan statistics were utilized to determine the spatiotemporal patterns of 29,889 fire events in the research area. There were four primary types of fires: (1) structural fires (39%), (2) vehicle fires (11%), (3) green and open space fires (19%), and (4) others (31%). The interval from 12:00 to 23:00 h was identified as the high-risk period for all fire incidents. Fires were common in the nearby city core. Additionally, three significant hourly spatial-temporal clusters of firefighting operations were identified: the western part of the city between 12:00 and 23:00, the city center between 11:00 and 22:00, and the southeastern part between 11:00 and 22:00. Population density, illiteracy ratio, unemployment ratio, youth ratio, low-income population, and the number of old buildings might be socio-economic criteria that contribute to the spatiotemporal pattern of urban fires. Urban planners might prioritize high-risk neighborhoods when allocating resources for fire safety. Future research could specifically investigate high-risk regions to identify relevant characteristics in these areas.

Automated summary

The study identifies fire patterns in the second-most populous city in Iran, Mashhad, from 2015 to 2019. Spatial scan statistics were used to analyze 29,889 fire events in the area and found four primary types of fires. The period from 12:00 to 23:00 was identified as high-risk for all fire incidents. Urban planners should consider socio-economic factors and prioritize high-risk neighborhoods for fire safety resource allocation. Future research could focus on high-risk regions to identify specific characteristics.