Assessment of hybrid machine learning algorithms using TRMM rainfall data for daily inflow forecasting in Tres Marias Reservoir, eastern Brazil

This study investigates the application of the Gaussian Radial Basis Function Neural Network (GRNN), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Multilayer Perceptron Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (MLP-PSO) models in analyzing the relationship between rainfall and runoff and in predicting runoff discharge. These models utilize autoregressive input vectors based on daily-observed TRMM rainfall and TMR inflow data. The performance evaluation of each model is conducted using statistical measures to compare their effectiveness in capturing the complex relationships between input and output variables. The results consistently demonstrate that the MLP-PSO model outperforms the GRNN and GPR models, achieving the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) across multiple input combinations. Furthermore, the study explores the application of the Empirical Mode Decomposition-Hilbert-Huang Transform (EMD-HHT) in conjunction with the GPR and MLP-PSO models. This combination yields promising results in streamflow predic-tion, with the MLP-PSO-EMD model exhibiting superior accuracy compared to the GPR-EMD model. The incorporation of different components into the MLP-PSO-EMD model significantly improves its accuracy. Among the presented scenarios, Model M4, which incorporates the simplest components, emerges as the most favorable choice due to its lowest RMSE values. Comparisons with other models reported in the literature further underscore the effectiveness of the MLP-PSO-EMD model in streamflow prediction. This study offers valuable insights into the selection and performance of different models for rainfall-runoff analysis and prediction.

Automated summary

This study compares the performance of three models, GRNN, GPR, and MLP-PSO, in analyzing rainfall-runoff relationship and predicting runoff discharge. The MLP-PSO model achieves the best performance with the lowest RMSE. The study also explores the combination of EMD-HHT with GPR and MLP-PSO, and finds that the MLP-PSO-EMD model shows superior accuracy in streamflow prediction.