Tick-Bite Meteo-Prevention: An Evaluation of Public Responsiveness to Tick Activity Forecasts Available Online

Until causal prophylaxis is available, the avoidance of ticks and personal protection provide the best insurance against contracting a tick-borne disease (TBD). To support public precaution, tick-activity forecasts (TAFs) based on weather projection are provided online for some regions/countries. This study-aimed at evaluating the efficacy of this preventative strategy-was conducted between 2015 and 2019, and included two countries where TAFs are issued regularly (Czech Republic, Germany) and two neighbouring countries for reference (Austria, Switzerland). Google Trends (GT) data were used to trace public concern with TAFs and related health information. GTs were compared with epidemiological data on TBD cases and tick bites, wherever available. Computer simulations of presumable effectiveness under various scenarios were performed. This study showed that public access to TAFs/preventive information is infrequent and not optimally distributed over the season. Interest arises very early in midwinter and then starts to fall in spring/summer when human-tick contacts culminate. Consequently, a greater number of TBD cases are contracted beyond the period of maximum public responsiveness to prevention guidance. Simulations, nevertheless, indicate that there is a potential for doubling the prevention yield if risk assessment, in addition to tick activity, subsumes the population's exposure, and a real-time surrogate is proposed.

Automated summary

Until a causal prophylaxis is available, the best way to prevent tick-borne diseases is through avoiding ticks and personal protection. Some regions/countries provide tick-activity forecasts (TAFs) based on weather projections to support public precautions. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of this preventative strategy and found that public access to TAFs and preventive information is limited, resulting in a higher number of TBD cases occurring after the period of maximum public responsiveness. Simulations suggest that the prevention yield could be doubled by considering population exposure in addition to tick activity and proposing real-time alternatives.