The impact of Turkey's water resources development on the flow regime of the Tigris River in Iraq

Study region: Once, the Tigris River (with its twin, the Euphrates) was the remarkable river in the west of Asia, making Mesopotamia a cradle of civilization thousands of years ago. Upstream anthropogenic activity has choked the Tigris River, the connecting lifeline across Iraq, and, due to droughts and desertification, caused the country to be plagued by poverty.Study focus: Here, we give a perspective on flow regime alteration in the main corridor of the Tigris River at five crucial points (Cizre, Mosul, Baiji, Baghdad, and Kut) before and after the planned water resources development in Turkey. Turkey's Tigris River regulation goal is to generate about 7247 GWh of energy and irrigate over 640,000 ha of farmlands.New hydrological insights for the region: We reconstructed the natural flow along the Tigris River. In addition, to evaluate hydrological droughts, we proposed a modified streamflow drought index (MSDI) and compared it with the original streamflow drought index (SDI). The results show that the worst hydrological conditions could be found below the Samarra barrage in Iraq before the Tigris River regulation in Turkey. This negative hydrological condition will be extended to the whole corridor of the Tigris River in Iraq after the implementation of Turkey's goal. As a result, for example, Cizre and Mosul will experience extreme conditions in 37.5-87.5% of the years; this means a considerable reduction in the Mosul reservoire's inflow (135-326 m3/sec). Conse-quently, some parts of Mosul's hydropower and reservoir capacity will be useless, and hydro-logical drought upstream of the Samarra barrage will be dominated.

Automated summary

This study focuses on the impact of water resources development in Turkey on the Tigris River basin, and proposes a modified streamflow drought index. The study finds that the entire corridor of the Tigris River in Iraq will face severe hydrological drought conditions after the implementation of Turkey's goals, with areas like Cizre and Mosul experiencing extreme conditions in 37.5-87.5% of years. Rating: 8/10.