Physics-based modeling of climate change impact on hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards

Coastal erosion is an adverse impact of extreme water levels during major hurricanes. A warmer climate is expected to increase storm surge and wave hazards due to hurricane climatology change (HCC) and sea level rise (SLR). We conduct physics-based morphodynamic modeling to quantify the regional impacts of HCC and SLR on erosion hazards to sandy beaches and dunes along the barrier islands of New Jersey in the United States. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find a substantial increase in erosion hazards from the late-20th-century to late-21st-century. The regionally averaged 100-year eroded volume of beach-dune systems would increase by 58 and 84%, respectively, under the HCC and HCC + SLR scenarios. Our projections show a large spatial variability in future changes to erosion hazards, suggesting that, in addition to HCC and SLR, the morphological characteristics of beach-dune systems play an important role in the impacts of climate change on coastal erosion.

Automated summary

This study uses physics-based morphodynamic modeling to assess the regional impacts of climate change and sea level rise on erosion hazards to sandy beaches and dunes in New Jersey, USA. The results show a substantial increase in erosion hazards under the HCC and HCC + SLR scenarios, with the regionally averaged 100-year eroded volume of beach-dune systems increasing by 58% and 84% respectively. The study also highlights the importance of the morphological characteristics of beach-dune systems in the impacts of climate change on coastal erosion.