Development and validation of a diagnostic model for the identification of chronic ocular graft-versus-host disease (oGVHD)

Purpose: To verify the International Chronic Ocular Graft-Versus-Host Disease (ICCGVHD) Group diagnostic criteria and establish an easy-to-use and reliable diagnosis model for quick identification of chronic oGVHD.Methods: This study included 180 patients (355 eyes) who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) and visited the Peking University Third Hospital Cornea and Ocular Surface Disease Specialist Clinic from July 2020 to February 2021. The proportion of chronic oGVHD was 76.06% (279/355).Results: Five complaints, including eye dryness, photophobia, foreign body sensation, eye redness, and burning sensation; six ophthalmic examinations, including Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) score, corneal fluorescein staining (CFS), tear break-up time (TBUT), Schirmer's test score without anesthesia, conjunctival score, tear meniscus height, and non-ocular GVHD-involved organs were significantly different between patients with chronic oGVHD and control group (p < 0.05). Binary logistic regression (backward LR algorithm) selection demonstrated that three variables retained diagnostic significance for chronic oGVHD: CFS (OR = 2.71 (1.92-3.81), p < 0.001), Schirmer's test score without anesthesia (OR = 0.83 (0.76-0.91), p < 0.001), and conjunctival score (OR = 1.96 (1.13-3.42), p = 0.031). A nomogram for the identification of chronic oGVHD was developed, and its performance was examined using an internal validation cohort (118 eyes). The areas under the curve (AUCs) for the three-variable-based nomogram were 0.976 (95% CI (0.959-0.992), p < 0.01) and 0.945 (95% CI (0.904-0.986), p < 0.01) in the development and internal validation cohorts, respectively.Conclusion: This concise three-variable-based nomogram based on ICCGVHD criteria could serve as an easy-to-use and reliable tool for rapid screening of chronic oGVHD.

Automated summary

The study aims to verify the International Chronic Ocular Graft-Versus-Host Disease (ICCGVHD) Group diagnostic criteria and establish an easy-to-use and reliable diagnosis model for quick identification of chronic oGVHD. Through observations and examinations of 180 patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, significant differences were found in five complaints and six ophthalmic examinations between patients with chronic oGVHD and the control group. A three-variable-based nomogram was developed for the identification of chronic oGVHD, which showed excellent performance in the validation cohorts.