Quantifying the human impact of Melbourne's 111-day hard lockdown experiment on the adult population

Lockdown was used worldwide to mitigate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and was the cornerstone non-pharmaceutical intervention of zero-COVID strategies. Many previous impact evaluations of lockdowns are unreliable because lockdowns co-occurred with severe coronavirus disease related health and financial insecurities. This was not the case in Melbourne's 111-day lockdown, which left other Australian jurisdictions unaffected. Interrogating nationally representative longitudinal survey data and quasi-experimental variation, and controlling for multiple hypothesis testing, we found that lockdown had some statistically significant, albeit small, impacts on several domains of human life. Women had lower mental health (-0.10 s.d., P = 0.043, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.21 to -0) and working hours (-0.13 s.d., P = 0.006, 95% CI = -0.22 to -0.04) but exercised more often (0.28 s.d., P < 0.001, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.39) and received more government transfers (0.12 s.d., P = 0.048, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.24). Men felt less part of their community (-0.20 s.d., P < 0.001, 95% CI = -0.30 to -0.10) and reduced working hours (-0.12 s.d., P = 0.004, 95% CI = -0.20 to -0.04). Heterogeneity analyses demonstrated that families with children were driving the negative results. Mothers had lower mental health (-0.27 s.d., P = 0.014, 95% CI = -0.48 to -0.06), despite feeling safer (0.26 s.d., P = 0.008, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.46). Fathers increased their alcohol consumption (0.35 s.d., P = 0.002, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.57). Some outcomes worsened with lockdown length for mothers. We discuss potential explanations for why parents were adversely affected by lockdown.

Automated summary

Melbourne's 111-day lockdown had statistically significant but small impacts on various aspects of human life. Women experienced lower mental health and working hours but exercised more and received more government transfers. Men felt less part of their community and reduced working hours. Families with children were the main drivers of negative outcomes.