Usefulness of the Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index for Predicting Short-Term Mortality among Patients of the COLOS Study

Advanced age is known to be a predictor with COVID-19 severity. Understanding of other disease progression factors may shorten the time from patient admission to applied treatment. The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO index) was assumed to additionally anticipate clinical results of patients hospitalized with a proven infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Methods: The medical records of 2183 hospitalized patients were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into four risk-of-death categories: low risk, medium risk, high-risk, and extreme risk depending on their VACO index calculation. Results: Significant differences in the mortality at the hospital after three months of discharge and six months after discharge were noticed. For the patients in the extreme-risk group, mortality reached 37.42%, 62.81%, and 78.44% for in-hospital, three months of discharge, and six months of discharge, respectively. The mortality marked as high risk reached 20.38%, 37.19%, and 58.77%. Moreover, the secondary outcomes analysis acknowledged that patients classified as extreme risk were more likely to suffer from cardiogenic shock, myocardial infarction, myocardial injury, stroke, pneumonia, acute kidney injury, and acute liver dysfunction. Patients at moderate risk were more often admitted to ICU when compared to other patients. Conclusions: The usage of the VACO index, combined with an appropriate well-defined medical interview and past medical history, tends to be a helpful instrument in order to predict short-term mortality and disease progression based on previous medical records.

Automated summary

Advanced age is a predictor for COVID-19 severity. The VACO index, along with past medical records, can be used to predict short-term mortality and disease progression.