Understanding post-pandemic metro commuting ridership by considering the built environment: A quasi-natural experiment in Wuhan, China

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on metro commuting ridership. However, the exact magnitude and spatial and temporal characteristics of the impact remain unclear. In this study, we explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on metro commuting ridership in Wuhan, where the novel virus was first reported. The results of interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis showed that metro commuting ridership sharply dropped in the short term under the impact of the outbreak in the epicenter, rebounded rapidly as the pandemic eased, and returned to pre-pandemic levels in six months. Furthermore, there was a noticeable spatial hetero-geneity in the rebound. Urban centers, especially job-rich areas, recovered faster than other areas. In addition, the number of residents, number of bus stops, number of enterprises around a metro station, and being a transfer station had a positive effect on metro ridership, while street length, number of restaurants, and number of metro exits had a negative effect. These findings may help local governments and metro managers develop sustainable metro operations and infection prevention policies to better cope with the impact of the pandemic and beyond.

Automated summary

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected metro commuting ridership in Wuhan, with a sharp decline in the short term followed by a rapid rebound and full recovery within six months. The rebound showed spatial heterogeneity, with urban centers and job-rich areas recovering faster. Factors such as the number of residents, bus stops, and enterprises around a metro station, as well as being a transfer station, had a positive effect on ridership, while street length, number of restaurants, and metro exits had a negative effect. These findings can inform the development of sustainable metro operations and infection prevention policies in response to the pandemic.