Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Future Poleward Moisture Transport and Arctic Climate in EC-Earth2

Alongside mean increases in poleward moisture transport (PMT) to the Arctic, most climate models also project a linear increase in the interannual variability (IAV) with future warming. It is still uncertain to what extent atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute to the projected IAV increase of PMT. We analyzed large-ensemble climate simulations to (a) explore the link between PMT and ARs in the present-day (PD) and in two warmer climates (+2 and +3 degrees C compared to pre-industrial global mean temperature), (b) assess the dynamic contribution to changes in future ARs, and (c) analyze the effect of ARs on Arctic climate on interannual timescales. We find that the share of AR-related PMT (ARPMT) to PMT increases from 42% in the PD to 53% in the +3 degrees C climate. Our results show that the mean increases in AR-frequency and intensity are mainly caused by higher atmospheric moisture levels, while dynamic variability regulates regional ARs on an interannual basis. Notably, the amount of ARs reaching the Arctic in any given region and season strongly depends on the regional jet stream position and speed southwest of this region. This suggests that future changes in dynamics may significantly amplify or dampen the regionally consistent moisture-induced increase in ARs in a warmer climate. Our results further support previous findings that positive ARPMT anomalies are profoundly linked to increased surface air temperature and precipitation, especially in the colder seasons, and have a predominantly negative effect on sea ice.

Automated summary

Alongside increases in poleward moisture transport to the Arctic, climate models also project an increase in interannual variability with future warming. This study analyzes climate simulations to explore the link between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture transport, finding that higher atmospheric moisture levels cause increases in AR frequency and intensity. Additionally, dynamic variability regulates regional ARs on an interannual basis. Future changes in dynamics may significantly amplify or dampen moisture-induced increases in ARs in a warmer climate. Positive AR anomalies are linked to increased surface air temperature and precipitation, with a negative effect on sea ice.