MCSPF-Net: A Precipitation Forecasting Method Using Multi-Channel Cloud Observations of FY-4A Satellite by 3D Convolution Neural Network

Accurate precipitation forecasting plays an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation. Currently, precipitation forecasting mainly depends on numerical weather prediction and radar observation. However, ground-based radar observation has limited coverage and is easily influenced by the environment, resulting in the limited coverage of precipitation forecasts. The infrared observations of geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) satellites have been widely used in precipitation estimation due to their extensive coverage, continuous monitoring, and independence from environmental influences. In this study, we propose a multi-channel satellite precipitation forecasting network (MCSPF-Net) based on 3D convolutional neural networks. The network uses real-time multi-channel satellite observations as input to forecast precipitation for the future 4 h (30-min intervals), utilizing the observation characteristics of GEO satellites for wide coverage precipitation forecasting. The experimental results showed that the precipitation forecasting results of MCSPF-Net have a high correlation with the Global Precipitation Measurement product. When evaluated using rain gauges, the forecasting results of MCSPF-Net exhibited higher critical success index (0.25 vs. 0.21) and correlation coefficients (0.33 vs. 0.23) and a lower mean square error (0.36 vs. 0.93) compared to the numerical weather prediction model. Therefore, the multi-channel satellite observation-driven MCSPF-Net proves to be an effective approach for predicting near future precipitation.

Automated summary

Accurate precipitation forecasting is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, a multi-channel satellite precipitation forecasting network (MCSPF-Net) based on 3D convolutional neural networks is proposed. By using real-time multi-channel satellite observations, the network can forecast precipitation for the next 4 hours with wide coverage. Experimental results show that MCSPF-Net has a high correlation with the Global Precipitation Measurement product and outperforms the numerical weather prediction model in terms of critical success index, correlation coefficients, and mean square error. Therefore, the multi-channel satellite observation-driven MCSPF-Net proves to be an effective approach for near future precipitation forecasting.