The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming

The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10 degrees S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5 degrees N and Indo-Pacific at 20 degrees S is 0.093-0.304 PW and 0.097-0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55 degrees S is 0.071-0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5 degrees N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Projections of ocean heat transport show a decrease which is driven by a decline in overturning circulation. Such a decrease in ocean heat transport can dampen the global warming signal in Northwest Europe.

Automated summary

Using climate projections, this study finds that future ocean heat transport is expected to decrease, primarily driven by a decline in overturning circulation, which will affect the global warming signal in Northwest Europe.