Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Most models of global climate change impacts and policy do not consider adaptation or societies' ability to adapt. Here the authors propose a way to better integrate adaptation in such models using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario framework to quantify adaptive capacity via a suite of socioeconomic indicators. Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Global models that assess the impacts of climate change and policy options to reduce them most often do not elaborately represent adaptation. When they do, they rarely account for heterogeneity in societies' adaptive capacities and their temporal dynamics. Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models. A large set of indicators spanning different socioeconomic dimensions can be used to assess adaptive capacity and deliver adaptation-relevant, scenario-resolved information that is crucial for more realistic assessment of whether and how climate risks can be reduced by adaptation.

Automated summary

Most global climate change models and policies do not take into account adaptation or societies' ability to adapt. The authors propose integrating adaptation into these models using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario framework and quantifying adaptive capacity through socioeconomic indicators. Adaptation needs and capacities vary across regions and are not adequately represented in current global models. The proposed approach provides a way to assess adaptive capacity and deliver relevant information for realistic assessment of climate risks and reduction strategies.