Diurnal rhythms of wrist temperature are associated with future disease risk in the UK Biobank

Many chronic disease symptomatologies involve desynchronized sleep-wake cycles, indicative of disrupted biorhythms. This can be interrogated using body temperature rhythms, which have circadian as well as sleep-wake behavior/environmental evoked components. Here, we investigated the association of wrist temperature amplitudes with a future onset of disease in the UK Biobank one year after actigraphy. Among 425 disease conditions (range n = 200-6728) compared to controls (range n = 62,107-91,134), a total of 73 (17%) disease phenotypes were significantly associated with decreased amplitudes of wrist temperature (Benjamini-Hochberg FDR q < 0.05) and 26 (6.1%) PheCODEs passed a more stringent significance level (Bonferroni-correction alpha < 0.05). A two-standard deviation (1.8 degrees Celsius) lower wrist temperature amplitude corresponded to hazard ratios of 1.91 (1.58-2.31 95% CI) for NAFLD, 1.69 (1.53-1.88) for type 2 diabetes, 1.25 (1.14-1.37) for renal failure, 1.23 (1.17-1.3) for hypertension, and 1.22 (1.11-1.33) for pneumonia (phenome-wide atlas available at http://bioinf.itmat.upenn.edu/biorhythm_atlas/). This work suggests peripheral thermoregulation as a digital biomarker.

Automated summary

Many chronic diseases are characterized by disrupted sleep-wake cycles, indicating disrupted biorhythms. In this study, the association between wrist temperature amplitudes and future disease onset was investigated. It was found that decreased wrist temperature amplitudes were significantly associated with various diseases, suggesting peripheral thermoregulation as a potential digital biomarker.