The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030

Electrifying sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires major investments and policy intervention. Existing analyses focus on the levelized cost of electricity at aggregate levels, leaving the feasibility and affordability of reaching Sustainable Development Goal #7 - access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all - by country unclear. Here, we use the electrification model OnSSET to estimate granular and spatially explicit levelized costs of electricity and costs per person per day (pp/d) for 40 countries in SSA. We find that solar-powered mini-grids and standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying remote and high-cost areas, particularly for lower tiers of electrification. On average, least-cost electrification in SSA at Tier 3 (ca. 365 kWh/household/year), can be provided at 14c USD/kWh or 7c USD pp/d. These results are sensitive to demand assumptions, for example, misguided electrification planning or oversizing due to overestimated demand can lead to substantial cost increases. Our results highlight large variances within countries, which we propose to visualise using electrification cost curves by country. Policymakers should consider such cost curves and use a tailored approach by country and region to reach SDG7 in SSA. Solar-powered standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying sub-Saharan Africa. Household electrification can be provided at 7c USD per person per day on average. To reflect inter- and intra-country variance, policymakers should consider electrification cost curves.

Automated summary

The electrification cost in sub-Saharan Africa varies greatly, and solar-powered standalone systems significantly reduce the cost. On average, electrification can be provided at a cost of 7 cents per person per day. Policymakers should consider electrification cost curves for different countries to develop targeted policies.