Decadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates

Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has a short atmospheric lifetime (similar to 12 years), so that emissions reductions will have a rapid impact on climate forcing. In megacities such as Los Angeles (LA), natural gas (NG) leakage is the primary atmospheric methane source. The magnitudes and trends of fugitive NG emissions are largely unknown and need to be quantified to verify compliance with emission reduction targets. Here we use atmospheric remote sensing data to show that, in contrast to the observed global increase in methane emissions, LA area emissions decreased during 2011-2020 at a mean rate of (-1.57 +/- 0.41) %/yr. However, the NG utility calculations indicate a much larger negative emissions trend of -5.8 %/yr. The large difference between top-down and bottom-up trends reflects the uncertainties in estimating the achieved emissions reductions. Actions taken in LA can be a blueprint for COP28 and future efforts to reduce methane emissions.

Automated summary

This study uses atmospheric remote sensing data to demonstrate a decreasing trend in methane emissions in the Los Angeles area from 2011 to 2020. These findings provide important guidance for efforts to reduce methane emissions.