Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980-2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

Automated summary

This study improved a distributed regional land surface model to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on soil erosion and sediment yield in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) over the past century. The results showed that despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff, sediment yield significantly increased during 1980-2018, mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield in the early 20th century, while climate variability became the dominant driver in recent decades. Extreme climate is increasingly affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, emphasizing the need to revisit existing Best Management Practices for water quality in the MRB.