Long-term air temperature trends in North Cyprus

The Eastern Mediterranean region is a major climate change hotspot. The island of Cyprus is likely to face increases in the frequency and intensity of hotter weather conditions and heatwaves in the near future. Studies conducted on the long-term temperature changes in Cyprus are very limited. Here, we present an updated and most detailed assessment of the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature series in North Cyprus for the period 1975-2021. Data obtained from the meterological stations of North Cyprus have been analysed using Mann-Kendal (MK) test and Theil-Sen slope estimator. Overall the mean minimum temperature trend (Tmin) showed the highest warming rate 0.61 (0.24 <= Tmin <= 0.99)degrees C decade-1 followed by the mean temperature trend (Tmean) 0.38 (0.29 <= Tmean <= 0.50) degrees C decade-1 and the mean maximum temperature trend (Tmax) 0.28 (0 <= Tmax <= 0.50) degrees C decade-1. The magnitude of the warming trend observed in the overall mean minimum temperature of North Cyprus 0.61 degrees C decade-1, is one of the fastest warming trends reported in the literature. A negative association was detected between the direction of prevailing winds of North Cyprus and the magnitude of increase in the mean temperature trends of the locations with coastal Mediterranean climate, which has pointed out the importance of prevailing winds regarding their cooling effect in coastal areas. The diurnal temperature range trend of North Cyprus indicates an apparent decrease (- 0.33 degrees C decade-1). The warming impact of urban heat island effect was detected in temperature trends of Nicosia in the Mesaoria plain. The information provided here is invaluable to consider in any climate assessment and adaptation plan in Cyprus. If the current warming trend persists into the future, it will devastatingly impact all sectors and natural systems in the region.

Automated summary

The Eastern Mediterranean region, including the island of Cyprus, is experiencing significant climate change, with increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Limited research has been conducted on long-term temperature changes in Cyprus, but the latest study reveals that the mean minimum temperature in North Cyprus has been rising at one of the fastest rates reported in the literature. Additionally, prevailing winds have a cooling effect on coastal areas, and the urban heat island effect is evident in Nicosia's temperature trends.