Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data

In this paper we analyse the relationship between technological innovation in the artificial intelligence (AI) domain and macroeconomic productivity. We embed recently released data on patents and publications related to AI in an augmented model of productivity growth, which we estimate for the OECD countries and compare to an extended sample including non-OECD countries. Our estimates provide evidence in favour of the modern productivity paradox. We show that the development of AI technologies remains a niche innovation phenomenon with a negligible role in the officially recorded productivity growth process. This general result, i.e. a lack of a strong relationship between AI and registered macroeconomic productivity growth, is robust to changes in the country sample, in the way we quantify labour productivity and technology (including AI stock), in the specification of the empirical model (control variables) and in estimation methods.

Automated summary

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between technological innovation in the artificial intelligence (AI) domain and macroeconomic productivity. Our estimates provide evidence in favor of the modern productivity paradox, showing that the development of AI technologies has a negligible role in the officially recorded productivity growth process. This result is robust to changes in the country sample, labor productivity quantification, empirical model specification, and estimation methods.