Finding space for offshore wind to support net zero: A methodology to assess spatial constraints and future scenarios, illustrated by a UK case study

Government and commercial forecasts indicate global ambitions for 2000 GW of installed offshore wind (OW) by 2050 to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. Set against a current global installed capacity of 56 GW offshore wind, which has taken over 30 years to achieve, the challenge of installing 35 times that capacity in the coming 30 years is considerable. Aside from the issue of the necessary pace of OW installation, another challenge is scale: Where in the ocean could and should this new infrastructure be placed? This paper presents a spatial analysis approach for assessing the location of future offshore wind that collates and integrates, metocean, geoscience, ecological and anthropogenic features and intersects with engineering requirements. A new contribution to the field is made through calibration in relation to current ocean 'crowdedness', which leads to a suitability ranking of new sea regions. A case study is presented to illustrate the workflow and methodology of this approach based on the United Kingdom (UK)-Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ). The UK has been selected as an exemplar due to its well-developed offshore wind sector, having the greatest installed capacity globally until the close of 2021, and as a region with ambitious and legislated offshore wind targets to meet net zero. The modelling and analysis quantify the need to eliminate the water depth barrier through floating OW technology, open up new sea regions and the associated port and grid infrastructure, as well as to assess the potential impact of increased utilisation of ocean space for OW.

Automated summary

This article introduces a spatial analysis approach for assessing the location of future offshore wind, taking into account metocean, geoscience, ecological, and anthropogenic features as well as engineering requirements. It calibrates suitability rankings of new sea regions based on the current ocean 'crowdedness' and presents a case study based on the UK's Economic Exclusive Zone. The analysis highlights the need for floating offshore wind technology to overcome water depth barriers and explores the potential impact of increased utilization of ocean space for offshore wind.