Association between waist circumference trajectories and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Purpose: Waist circumference (WC) is linked to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) incidence. However, the impact of longitudinal WC changes on NAFLD remains unclear. We investigated WC trajectories and NAFLD incidence in a large population-based cohort. Methods: We analyzed data from 2666 participants without NAFLD, who underwent biennial check-ups for 16 years, divided into a 6-year exposure period and a 10-year event accrual period. Participants were classified into increasing and decreasing WC trajectory groups during the median 5.9-year exposure period by group-based trajectory modeling. Multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for incident NAFLD.Results: During the median 9.7-year event accrual period, 799 participants developed NAFLD. The increasing WC trajectory group had a higher NAFLD risk than the decreasing group, with an HR of 1.20 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.42). After adjusting for confounders, the adjusted-HR was 1.28 (95 % CI: 1.07-1.53). Subgroup analyses revealed significant findings for groups, regardless of abdominal obesity status.Conclusion: An increasing WC trend was associated with a higher NAFLD risk, independent of abdominal obesity status. Monitoring WC changes may facilitate early detection of NAFLD risk groups and promote lifestyle modifications to prevent NAFLD onset.

Automated summary

This study investigated the association between waist circumference (WC) changes and the incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The results showed that an increasing WC trend was associated with a higher risk of NAFLD, independent of abdominal obesity status. Monitoring WC changes may help identify individuals at risk for NAFLD and promote lifestyle modifications for prevention.