Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3-5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts. We identify a seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones that is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions.

Automated summary

The research finds that there has been a significant seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in most tropical oceans since the 1980s. This advance is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events and is primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, leading to disproportionate impacts.