Forecasting the long-term impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

Background: Italy has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for 'Experimental screening' for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long-term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Italy. Methods: We used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical 'Inefficient', 'Efficient experimental' and 'WHO Target' screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver-related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050. Results: The ' WHO Target' scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' screening up to 2030. A sharp (10-fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the 'WHO Target' scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by 'WHO Target,' 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver-related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the 'WHO Target' scenario (52000) versus 'Inefficient' or 'Efficient experimental' scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver-related deaths, respectively). Conclusions: Our estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long-term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the long-term impact of delayed HCV elimination due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, and emphasized the need for extensive and efficient HCV screening and cure to avoid adverse outcomes.