Ability of the DANCAMI to predict the risk ischemic stroke and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter

Objectives: Comparison of the danish comorbidity index for acute myocardial infarction (DANCAMI), the charlson comorbidity index (CCI), the elixhauser comorbidity index (ECI), and the CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality after atrial fibrillation/flutter. Materials and Methods: A population-based cohort study of all Danish patients with incident atrial fibrillation/flutter during 2000-2020 (n=361,901). C-Statistics were used to evaluate the discriminatory performance for predicting 1 and 5-year risks of the outcomes for a baseline model (including age and sex) +/- the individual indices. Results: For the DANCAMI, the 5-year risk did not increase with comorbidity burden for ischemic stroke (5.9% for low vs. 5.6% for severe) but did increase for cardiovascular mortality (10% for low vs. 16% for severe) and all-cause mortality (33% for low vs. 61% for severe). C-Statistics for predicting 5-year ischemic stroke risk were similar for all models (0.64). C-Statistics for predicting 5-year cardiovascular mortality risk were also similar for the baseline (0.76), the DANCAMI (0.77), the CCI (0.76), the ECI (0.76), and the CHA2DS2-VASc (0.76) models. C-Statistics for predicting 5-year allcause mortality risk were lower for the baseline (0.71) and the CHA2DS2-VASc (0.71) models than for the DANCAMI (0.75), the CCI (0.74), and the ECI (0.74) models. The 1-year C-Statistics were comparable. Conclusion: The DANCAMI predicted ischemic stroke and cardiovascular mortality risks similar to the CCI, the ECI, and the CHA2DS2-VASc. The DANCAMI predicted all-cause mortality risk similar to the CCI and the ECI, but better than the baseline and the CHA2DS2-VASc.& COPY; 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Automated summary

This study compared the discriminatory performance of the Danish comorbidity index for acute myocardial infarction (DANCAMI), the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), the Elixhauser comorbidity index (ECI), and the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality after atrial fibrillation/flutter. The results showed that DANCAMI had similar predictive performance to CCI, ECI, and CHA2DS2-VASc for ischemic stroke and cardiovascular mortality risks. DANCAMI also had better predictive performance for all-cause mortality risk compared to the baseline and CHA2DS2-VASc.