Can deep learning on retinal images augment known risk factors for cardiovascular disease prediction in diabetes? A prospective cohort study from the national screening programme in Scotland

Aims: This study's objective was to evaluate whether deep learning (DL) on retinal photographs from a diabetic retinopathy screening programme improve prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).Methods: DL models were trained to jointly predict future CVD risk and CVD risk factors and used to output a DL score. Poisson regression models including clinical risk factors with and without a DL score were fitted to study cohorts with 2,072 and 38,730 incident CVD events in type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) respectively. Results: DL scores were independently associated with incident CVD with adjusted standardised incidence rate ratios of 1.14 (P = 3 x 10-04 95 % CI (1.06, 1.23)) and 1.16 (P = 4 x 10-33 95 % CI (1.13, 1.18)) in T1DM and T2DM cohorts respectively. The differences in predictive performance between models with and without a DL score were statistically significant (differences in test log-likelihood 6.7 and 51.1 natural log units) but the in-crements in C-statistics from 0.820 to 0.822 and from 0.709 to 0.711 for T1DM and T2DM respectively, were small.Conclusions: These results show that in people with diabetes, retinal photographs contain information on future CVD risk. However for this to contribute appreciably to clinical prediction of CVD further approaches, including exploitation of serial images, need to be evaluated.

Automated summary

The objective of this study was to evaluate whether deep learning (DL) on retinal photographs from a diabetic retinopathy screening programme improves prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). DL scores were independently associated with incident CVD in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes cohorts. However, the incremental improvements in C-statistics were small.